Forecasters Lower Their Expectations for Unemployment Rate in 2023 and 2024

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (06/16/23)

The U.S. economy’s output (real gross domestic product) will grow at an annual rate of 1.1% during the first half of the year, according to a survey of 15 forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Forecasters expect higher output growth for the first half of 2023 than they anticipated in the December 2022 survey. Forecasters expect weaker conditions in the second half of the year, when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of -0.7%. Both projections represent upward revisions from those of the December 2022 survey. Growth is expected to average an annual rate of 1.0% in the first half of 2024.

Forecasters see a lower unemployment rate in June and December than expected previously. They now anticipate that the unemployment rate will be 3.6% in June and 4.1% in December. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 4.6% in June 2024. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, Consumer Price Index inflation is expected to be 4.1% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. Both projections are revised downward from forecasts in the December 2022 survey. Producer Price Index inflation for finished goods is expected to be 2.3% this year, a slight downward revision from 2.4% in the previous survey. Forecasters expect PPI inflation to stay steady at 2.3% in 2024.

This article originally appeared on Use this link to see the full article.