Forecast For U.S. GDP Gets Downgrade, But Jobs Projections Improve

Staffing Industry Analysts- Novebmer 16, 2020

Economists downgraded their forecast for growth in US gross domestic product for the remainder of this year and the first nine months of 2021, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter. However, they don’t believe the US unemployment rate will be as high as forecast in their third-quarter report, and US payrolls are projected to grow at a faster clip.

For the fourth quarter of this year, the economists predict real GDP to increase only 4.0% on an annual basis compared to their previous forecast of 5.8%.

On the other hand, the median forecast for the unemployment rate was 7.0% for this quarter, down from the previous forecast of 9.5%.

Predicted job gains also jumped with forecasters now expecting the US to add an average of 689,800 jobs per month in the fourth quarter of this year, up from the previous forecast of 398,500.

Here are the median forecast responses from economists polled:

The Philadelphia Fed’s survey includes 37 forecasters. Find the article here.