More Moderate Growth Ahead, But GDP Forecast to Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels by Second Half of Next Year

Staffing Industry Analysts (12/7/2020)

More moderate economic growth is ahead, according to the National Association for Business Economics’ Outlook report based on a survey of 48 professional forecasters. Despite being less upbeat over the near term, the report found 73% of panelists believe the US economy will be back to pre-Covid levels by the second half of 2021.

“The NABE Outlook panel anticipates more moderate growth in economic activity going forward after the sharp rebound during the third quarter,” said NABE President Manuel Balmaseda, chief economist at Cemex.

The report’s median forecast calls for a 4.1% annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter for inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, or real GDP. Coupled with the 33.1% GDP growth in the third quarter, this would reverse much of the 32% annualized decline from the second quarter.

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