Economic Outlook Weakens

Economic Outlook Weakens As Philadelphia Fed Lowers Its GDP Estimate for the Year

Staffing Industry Analysts (08/12/2022)

The US economy looks weaker than it did in May, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters.

US real GDP is projected to grow at 1.4% in the current quarter, down from 2.5% in the previous forecast.

Forecasters lowered their growth expectations for the next three quarters as well. The panelists now expect GDP to grow at 1.6% for full-year 2022 and 1.3% in 2023.

Looking at employment, today’s report revised upward its unemployment rate projection.

The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will increase to 3.9% in 2023 from 3.7% in 2022 and will remain at the same rate over the following two years.

Meanwhile, forecasters raised their estimate for job growth for the current quarter. However, they revised downward their estimates for the next two quarters.

Projections for the annual average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 487,500 in 2022 and 167,600 in 2023.

The report draws data from 35 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.