Q3 and Q4 Unemployment Projections

Staffing Industry Analysts (05/12/23)

Economists mostly held steady in their forecast for growth in the US economy, according to the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters report for the second quarter released today. However, they raised their forecast for GDP growth in the third quarter to 0.6%, that’s up from a contraction of 0.6% they forecast back in February.

At the same time, forecasters downgraded their outlook for the fourth quarter of this year. They now expect GDP growth to be flat in the fourth quarter, down from their prediction in February of 1.0% growth.

The panel of 38 economists polled for the report also changed their forecast for payroll growth, raising their forecast for the current quarter. However, they revised projected employment growth downward for the third quarter of this year through the first quarter of next year.

Still, the forecasters predict the US unemployment rate from this quarter to the first quarter of next year will be better than what they forecast in February.

This article originally appeared on staffingindustry.com. Use this link to see the full article: ECONOMISTS UPWARDLY REVISE FORECAST FOR Q3 GROWTH IN GDP, BUT REVISE Q4 OUTLOOK DOWNWARD: PHILADELPHIA FED