In June, The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index (ETI) declined to 110.27 from 111.04 in May, marking a continued decrease since its peak in March 2022. This drop suggests potential employment reductions in the latter half of 2024, although the index remains higher than its pre-pandemic level. Payroll growth remains strong but has slowed compared to the rapid gains seen during the pandemic recovery. Despite these trends, the labor market is expected to cool only modestly, with net nonfarm payrolls likely to stay positive as companies strive to retain workers amidst ongoing difficulties in hiring. The latest jobs report for June highlighted consistent payroll increases (+206,000), particularly in healthcare, social assistance, and government sectors, with minimal changes in other industries. This resilience is observed despite slowing GDP growth, as many employers hold onto workers despite higher labor costs and persistent hiring challenges. The share of firms reporting unfilled job positions remains elevated at 37%, reflecting ongoing labor market tightness exacerbated by retiring Baby Boomers. Companies are cautious about reducing payrolls during economic slowdowns, anticipating temporary weaknesses and the costly process of rehiring amid persistent labor shortages.