Forecasters Strengthen Their Outlook for Real GDP Growth and the Unemployment Rate

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (06/18/21)

The U.S. economy’s output (real gross domestic product) will grow at an annual rate of 7.8% during the first half of 2021, according to a survey of 19 forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The economic rebound is expected to continue in the second half of 2021 when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of 6.7%. Both projections represent sharp upward revisions from those of the December 2020 survey. Growth will average an annual rate of 3.7% in the first half of 2022.

The forecasters see a lower unemployment rate in the first half of 2021 than they anticipated previously, with continued recovery in the second half of 2021. The forecasters say that the unemployment rate will be 5.7% in June and 4.7% in December. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.4% in June 2022.

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