Strong Job Growth, Tight Labor Market: The Conference Board

The historically fast job growth will continue, according to The Conference Board Employment Trends Index, but a tight labor market will also remain.

“The very rapid improvement in the Employment Trends Index in June suggests that strong job growth will continue through the summer,” said Gad Levanon, head of The Conference Board Labor Markets Institute.

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index rose to a reading of 109.84 in June from a reading of 107.70 in May. That’s up 28.2% from a year ago.

However, the US labor market is likely to remain very tight in the coming months.

“Recruiting and retention will remain extremely difficult, and wage growth will remain very high,” Levanon said. “Toward the end of 2021, labor shortages are likely to moderate as some of the labor supply constraints ease. But as the number of jobs in the US economy continues to grow at an historically high rate, unemployment may again dip below four percent within the next 12 months.”

A tight labor market is likely to be the new normal until the next recession, according to Levanon.

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