National Association for Business Economics (12/04/23)

National Association for Business Economics panelists anticipate stronger U.S. economic growth projections for 2023 than NABE panelists did in October, but the 40 panelists surveyed in November expect growth to slow to 1% between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024. Fewer respondents than in the October survey expect a recession within the next 12 months, with more than three in four assigning a probability of 50% or less. While most respondents expect an uptick in the unemployment rate going forward, a majority anticipates that the rate will not exceed 5%. Too much monetary policy tightness and broadening conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are cited as the largest downside risks for the U.S. economy.

Panelists anticipate further slowing in core inflation—excluding food and energy costs—but doubt it will reach the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s 2% target before year-end 2024. More than two-thirds expect the target will be reached in 2025 or later. Still, more than 80% of panelists believe interest-rate cuts will begin in 2024, with most expecting cuts to start in the second or third quarter of 2024.