Employment Trends Index Declined in October

PRNewswire (11/07/22)

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index dropped in October to 119.57, down from an upwardly revised 120.73 in September 2022. “Job growth will likely continue over the next months, albeit at a slowing pace,” said Frank Steemers, senior economist at the Conference Board. “Indeed, the labor market remains resilient with job gains still strong, but the [U.S. Federal Reserve’s] rapid monetary policy tightening is expected to have a more visibly negative impact on the pace of hiring by early 2023.”

Steemers added: “Until that happens, employers will have to deal with continued labor shortages. While there are signs these shortages have begun easing somewhat, hiring and retention difficulties are not over. A tight U.S. labor market, understaffing, limited recovery in labor force participation, and an aging workforce all suggest U.S. labor supply will remain a challenge for companies. As a result, employers may be more careful in laying off workers. Currently, we expect the U.S. economy to enter recession around year-end 2022, with the unemployment rate to rise to around 4.5% in 2023—roughly one percentage point higher than today, but still quite low compared [with] past downturns.”

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