Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (02/10/23)

The outlook for the U.S. economy in 2023 looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago, according to a survey of 37 forecasters by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters anticipate the economy will expand at an annual rate of 0.6% this quarter and 1.0% in the second quarter of 2023, up from the previous expectations of 0.2% in each quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real gross domestic product to increase 1.3% in 2023, up from the projection of 0.7% in the survey three months ago. A downward revision to the path for the unemployment rate accompanies the outlook for growth.

The forecasters expect the unemployment rate will increase from 3.5% this quarter to 4.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023. In the previous survey, the unemployment rate was forecast to rise from 3.8% to 4.4% over the same period. On an annual-average basis, the forecasters expect the unemployment rate to average 3.8% this year, marking a downward revision from the previous estimate of 4.2%. On the employment front, the panelists have revised upward their estimates for job gains in 2023. The projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 217,800 in 2023, up from 143,600 projected three months ago.

This article originally appeared on philadelphiafed.org. Use this link to see the full article: Forecasters See Higher Growth and Stronger Labor Market in 2023